2003 Chase Logs
Despite starting with a fizz, the first full week of May was the most active week (for tornadoes) in recorded tornado history (read: since 1950). Several once-a-year outbreaks occurred in the first ten-day stretch (including May 4th, May 8th, May 9th, and May 10th to name a few). Truly, truly remarkable. Unfortunately, these large outbreaks aren't especially favorable for storm chasers.Since chasers are mobile (by definition), we don't really need numerous tornadic supercells spread out over large populated areas. Rather, we just need a couple in rural areas. Death, injury, and destruction are the unfortunate consequences.
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April 15th -- Northwestern OK
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Gage to Erick, OK
Chase Area: Arnett to Sayre to Weatherford, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 118, 120, 123, 124, and 125
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 459, 461, 463, 466, 468, 472, 473, and 474
A rather potent day was forecasted. A very strong upper low was progged to move across and just north of the area by evening. A dryline was slowly pushing eastward from its 18z position in the central panhandles. Paul Marinski and I headed out about 1:30 (... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 19th -- Eastcentral / Northeastern OK
Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Chickasha, OK
Chase Area: Okemah to Slick to Broken Arrow to Oologah, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: PDS Tornado Watch 132, Tornado Watch 131, Severe Watch 135
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 501, 502, 503, 505, 506, 507, and 510
Quite a day in store... The first Day1 outlook brought up the possibility of an upgrade to high risk. Overnight convection dropped a nice outflow boundary from north of Ada to southeast of Tulsa. A strong upper tough was begining to lift out of the southwe... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 23rd -- NW / NC TX and SW OK
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Seymour, TX
Chase Area: Altus, OK, to Throckmorton, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 146, 149, and 150, Severe Watches 147 and 152
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 542, 544, 547, 548, 550, 551, 552, and 553
Yet another potentially significant severe weather outbreak forecasted for the southwestern OK and northcentral TX area. Moisture return and convective debris from morning convection were the main concerns going into the day. These concerns, in addition to... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 03rd -- Eastern TX Panhandle
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Shamrock to Childress, TX, to Elk City, OK
Chase Area: Memphis, TX, to Altus, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watches 220, 222, and 227
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 705, 707, 709, 713, 714, and 720
Nice potential for tornadic supercells as rapid moisture transport started overnight and continued through the morning (LAW dewpoint rose about 10 degrees in 2 hours). We watched a Cb EXPLODE near Memphis, TX, with an incredibly crisp look and nice pileus... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 04th -- NE OK / SW MO
Total Distance: 560 miles
Target Area: Tulsa to Bartlesville, OK
Chase Area: Bartlesville to Vinita, OK, to Neosho, MO
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 231, 232, 234, 237, and 243
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 726, 727, 732, 733, 734, 735, 737, 738, 740, 741, 742, and 748
Major tornado outbreak expected as very moist warm sector (tds >70) undercut very strong flow at all levels. The threat for tornadic supercells covered a large portion of OK, KS, and MO, but the northeastern part of OK looked excellent to me. Kim and I s... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 08th -- Northeastern OK
Total Distance: 550 miles
Target Area: Blackwell, OK
Chase Area: Caldwell to Arkansas City, KS, to Herd to Wann, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 304, 305, 308, and 311, Tornado Watches 298 and 307
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 842, 843, 850, 851, 856, 857, 858, 861, 863, 864, 865, 867, 868, and 870
Another major tornado outbreak expected as very moist warm sector (tds >70) undercuts very strong flow at all levels. The model biases continued as each model run pushed the dryline farther and farther west. The high instability - high shear pattern contin... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 09th -- Central OK
Total Distance: 200 miles
Target Area: El Reno to Guthrie, OK
Chase Area: Near or in Oklahoma City, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 320, 321, 327, and 330
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 875, 879, 885, 888, 889, 891, 894, 895, 896, and 898
Potential so-so day as weaker flow aloft was expected to keep tornado potential to a little more limited level than what was seen in days past. Because my parents were in town, in addition to the less impressive situation than in previous days, I did not w... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
July 06th -- Western MN
Total Distance: 480 miles
Target Area: Marshall, MN
Chase Area: Benson to Alexandria to Sauk Centre, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 656, 660, 661, and 662
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1644, 1651, 1652, 16556, 1658, 1661, 1665, and 166
A good chance for catching some tornadic storms today as good shear and high instability juxtposed in western Minnesota. An approaching cold front was to enter western Minnesota by mid-late afternoon and spark off scattered convection in moist warm sector.... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
July 09th -- IA / Southern MN
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Northcentral IA
Chase Area: Story City to Estherville to Lake Mills, IA
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 698, 699, 700, and 706
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1737, 1745, 1749, and 1753
A day of good hopes but few results. I headed southward into central Iowa, hoping to hope onto any supercell that would develop west of I35. A few storms developed along I35 between Des Moines through Story City, but they appeared disorganized. Since I c... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
July 14th -- Southern MN
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Spirit Lake, IA
Chase Area: Lake Crystal to Owatonna, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 744, 745, 746, 747, and 748
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1833, 1834, 1835, 1837, 1838, 1839, 1843, 1844, 1845, 1846, 1848, and 1849
I Spent a couple of days looking forward to this one. For the first time in a little while, there was an area of strong instability juxtaposed with very strong shear. Unlike the past several events, it seemed as though winds at all levels were to be quite ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
