2004 Chase Logs
Despite 2004 starting off as a very (near record) slow year as far as overall tornado numbers, it became my most productive season to date. Few of the tornadoes that I witnessed occurred on synoptically-evident days. Rather, most were the result of mesoscale processes that modified the local environment, making for an better-than-anticipated tornado threat. Weak mid- and upper-level flow plagued the southern plains during most potential severe weather days, however. Fortunately, the far lower number of tornadoes in the southern plains in 2004 meant far fewer injuries and fatalities.
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March 04th -- Southcentral OK
Total Distance: 300 miles
Target Area: Duncan, OK
Chase Area: Waurika to Ardmore, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 22, 23, and 24, , Severe Watches 20 and 21
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 157, 160, 161, 162, 164, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, and 171
Models were having a difficult time with this system for several days leading up to this event. From earlier in the week, it was looking as if Wednesday would be the good severe weather day for the southern plains. However, the models slowed down the arriv... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 27th -- Western / Central OK
Total Distance: 350 miles
Target Area: Elk City, OK
Chase Area: Clinton to Watonga, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 36 and 38
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 228, 232, 235, and 236
Left Norman about 10:30am, with a plan to head west on I40 to Clinton or Elk City. We picked these areas because they have good north/south options. At any rate, as we neared Clinton, we heard and confirmed two storms going up in far western OK -- one to t... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 21st -- Central / SE OK
Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Pauls Valley, OK
Chase Area: Norman to east of Ardmore, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: , Tornado Watch 101, Severe Watches 102 and 103
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 407, 413, 417, 420, 421, 423, 424, 425, and 426
Well, I had a dynamics exam at 3:30-4:30, so I was worried about getting a late start. By the time we packed up and hit the road, the OKC supercell was already in the city... We started driving north to that cell, but saw a nice storm just to our south (so... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 22nd -- Northeastern OK
Total Distance: 450 miles
Target Area: Henryetta, OK
Chase Area: Okmulgee to Bixby to Muskogee, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 104, 105, and 106
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 428, 432, 433, 434, 435, 436, 437, 438, 441, and 442
I actually liked the setup today more than yesterday. I liked the shear and instability. However, two things really got me excited: upper 60-s along the I40 corridor and points south, and a big fat boundary from south of Tulsa and southeastward. We all kno... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 23rd -- Southcentral OK
Total Distance: 175 miles
Target Area: Duncan, OK
Chase Area: Duncan, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watch 109, Severe Watches 111, 112, 113, 114, and 116
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 445, 446, 450, 451, 452, 453, 455, 457, 459, 460, 461, and 462
Well, I didn't like today from the beginning. With shear vectors along the front in OK, the storms were likely to go linear rather quickly. Additionally, ~700mb is quite weak. Again, like Weds., mid-level flow was quite weak, which tends to favor HP format... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 30th -- Southern OK / Northern TX
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Wichita Falls, TX
Chase Area: Ryan, OK, to Weatherford, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watch 132, Severe Watches 133, 134, 136, and 137
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 512, 515, 516, 517, 519, 521, 522, 523, 525, 526, 527, and 529
We left OUN abt 1:00pm, headed south on I35, then west towards the tor-warned cell near Ryan... Saw some decent structure with this storm, but it was pretty outflow dominant, though it had a very nice shelf cloud for quite some time. Disappointed with the ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 12th -- Southcentral KS
Total Distance: 475 miles
Target Area: Alva, OK, to Medicine Lodge, KS
Chase Area: Medicine Lodge to Anthony, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watches 193 and 196, Severe Watches 194 and 195
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 670, 672, 674, 675, 677, 678, 679, 680, and 681
The chase of my career so far...
This day looked looked to be the best we've had for some time. However, as the day neared, the models continue to indicate a slowing of the upper wave in the west. This meant that the best mid and upper level flow... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 18th -- Southern KS
Total Distance: 460 miles
Target Area: Wellington to Wichita, KS
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 744, 749, 753, and 755
We left Norman / Moore knowing that there was probably a better chance than not that any convection would be inhibited by a decent cap. That being said, a nice juxtaposition of strong instability (3000-4000 J/KG CAPE) and good shear north of a resident out... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 22nd -- Southcentral / Southeastern NE
Total Distance: 1050 miles
Target Area: Manhatten, KS, to Hastings, NE
Chase Area: Belvidere to Auburn, NE
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watch 251, Tornado Watches 249, 253, 254, 256
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 821, 823, 825, 828, 829, 831, 832, 833, 834, 836, and 838
A nice outflow boundary was situated in a west-southwest to east-northeast boundary just south of the NE/KS border in the morning hours. A deep low was forecast to develop in northwestern KS as a strong trough worked out of the southwestern US and into the... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 26th -- Central OK
Total Distance: 70 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Union City to Oklahoma City, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watches 298 and 302
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 911, 921, 924, and 927
I wasn't really planning on chasing today, since the environment only looked so-so for early-morning models, and I was wanting to save up for the coming weekend chase(s). However, the each RUC model run looked better and better for the potential of tornadi... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 29th -- Westcentral / Central OK
Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Enid, OK, to Wichita, KS
Chase Area: Thomas to Arcadia, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 322 and 323, Tornado Watches 326, 327, and 328
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 972, 973, 974, 976, 978, 980, 982, 983, and 985
Today looked like of the best outbreaks of the year as a very strong upper trough/low was forecast to move out of the western US, inducing a very deep low in western Kansas. Strong instability of >4000 j/kg CAPE was forecast across central KS, decreasing t... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 10th -- Northcentral KS / SC NE
Total Distance: 1040 miles
Target Area: Hill City, KS, to Kearney, NE
Chase Area: Hill City, KS, to Red Cloud, NE
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 425, 427, 428, and 430, Severe Watches 431 and 433
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1171, 1172, 1177, 1178, 1180, 1181, and 1182
A relatively abnormal situation was shaping up for the central plains as a strong, negatively-tilted shortwave trough ejected out of a western US longwave trough. Nice shear profiles as well as moderate instability was forecast to developed east of a surfa... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 12th -- Southcentral KS
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Wellington, KS
Chase Area: West of Wellington to Atlanta, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 446, 448, 449, 453, and 454, Severe Watches 456 and 457
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1212, 1214, 1217, 1219, 1221, 1225, 1226, 1228, 1233, 1234, 1235, 1237, 1239, and 1240
We had spent a couple of days prior looking forward to June 12th. Decent vertical shear and strong instability were progged over much of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Original intentions were to head to northeastern Kansas, but it looked more and more like ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
October 29th -- Eastcentral OK
Total Distance: 350 miles
Target Area: Shawnee to Henryetta, OK
Chase Area: Wetumka to east of Checotah, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watch 872
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 3276 and 2379
Given the time of year, I just had to chase as I knew it would most likely be the last chase opportunity until spring. Moderate instability had built across eastern Oklahoma as a strong upper-wave opened and ejected into the northern plains by evening. A s... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
