2006 Chase Logs
The year that was 2006 was not much better than 2005. Most of the promising-looking setups fell victim to meager moisture depth and magnitude. While I only had two "tornado days", both were at least very enjoyable tornadoes (3-20 and 4-24). Other than those two days, the majority of the season was extremely frustrating.
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March 08th -- South-central Oklahoma
Total Distance: 170 miles
Target Area: South-central OK / North-central TX
Chase Area: Ardmore (BUST)
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Not much of a log necessary. Surface-based convection never had a chance in the 60-80kts 0-6km shear environment and only ~1000j/kg sbCAPE. A nice supercell did develop after dark and tracked from near Throckmorton to Ada, but that was well after we had a... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 12th -- KS / MO / OK Area
Total Distance: 600 miles
Target Area: Independence (KS)
Chase Area: Near Independence to Fort Scott (KS) to Miami (OK)
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 73, 74, and 77, Tornado Watches 75, 78, 79, 80, and 81, Severe Watches 69, 70, 71, 72, and 76
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 253, 255-275
The models had been forecasting one of those once-a-decade type of March synoptically-evident tornado outbreaks for several days prior to this event. Unfortunately, the GFS had forecast similar high-end setups twice within 7-9 days previous to 3/12, neithe... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 20th -- Northwestern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 300 miles
Target Area: West of Watonga and South of Woodward
Chase Area: Taloga to Oakwood to Watonga to Omega
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight / None
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 335
Well, it was time to test the whole cold-core chase idea... With a very strong mid-level low approaching from the southwest (500mb temps in the -24 to -25F range), and the warm sector well displaced to the southeast, it looked like a semi-classic cold-core... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 29th -- Southwestern OK
Total Distance: 330 miles
Target Area: Hollis, OK, to Childress, TX
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Not much of a log needed. It was apparent beforehand that initiation would be an issue. With the upper-level system coming through after dark, I knew we were relying entirely on dryline convergence for initiation. Despite marginal-moderate CAPE and decent ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 30th -- Southern OK
Total Distance: 440 miles
Target Area: Duncan
Chase Area: Marlow, OK, to McAlester, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
I waited around OUN to see if the convection in southwestern OK would break up into discrete storms. I (with Jana Lesak, Gabe Garfield, Justin Walker, and *forgot the name,,, sorry!*) were originally planning on hitting up the storm near I40 to the west of... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 01st -- Western OK
Total Distance: 390 miles
Target Area: Shamrock, TX
Chase Area: Willow, OK, to Clinton, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Finally, a more classic dryline setup presented itself, as deep moisture surged northward ahead of a strong shortwave entering the southern plains. As this ocurred, a dryline was progged to setup across the central OK/TX panhandles, south and southeast of... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 06th -- NE OK / SE KS
Total Distance: 560 miles
Target Area: Bartlesville, OK
Chase Area: Bartlesville, OK, to Carney, KS, to Pryor, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 154, 157, and 159, Tornado Watches 155, 158, Severe Watch 156
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Another synoptically-evident severe weather setup today, with a VERY deep cylone along the central NE/KS border (~980mb) associated with an intense cut-off low moving out of the western US. The operational models weren't consistent with the location of the... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 24th -- Central Oklahoma
Total Distance: 175 miles
Target Area: Kingfisher, OK
Chase Area: In and near El Reno, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 244 and 247, Severe Watch 246
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 638, 640, 644, 645, 646, and 648
The models had been all over the place with the forecast for April 24th, but the general setup involved a surface low in western OK, with a strong cold front diving down the lee of the Rockies (with temps in the 30s in WY/CO/KS/NE during the afternoon). W... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 28th -- NW TX / SW OK
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Childress to Guthrie (TX)
Chase Area: Childress, TX, to Olustee, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 256, 257, 258, 259, 260
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 667, 668, 669, 670, 671, 672, 673, 674, 675, 676,
I went out with Robin, Dan, and JR, targeting an area near and south of CDS. We arrived in CDS and hoped that the convection that fired around 1pm west of ABI and south of Quanah wouldn't become a problem. By mid-late afternoon, new convection was developi... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 08th -- Northwestern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 330 miles
Target Area: Woodward, OK, to Ashland, KS
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watch 307
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 793, 796, 801
With a group of high school students visiting from Windom, MN, we opted to head northwest, with the potential for supercells. Long story short -- drove to Woodward, at which time it was obvious initiation was not going to occur anywhere close. Visible sa... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 09th -- Southeastern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 275 miles
Target Area: Seminole to McAlester, OK
Chase Area: Wewoka to Stuart to Atoka, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Went out with the Windom students again. The first day of true Gulf moisture in the area, with low-mid 70s dewpoints, a nice outflow boundary near and just south of I40, and decent shear led to pretty good optimism about chase prospects. And yeah, and CA... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 23rd -- Northcentral Kansas
Total Distance: 780 miles
Target Area: Concordia, KS, to Hebron, NE
Chase Area: Near Concordia, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watch 381, Severe Watches 380, 383, and 384
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 950, 952, 955, 957, and 958
Well, after a couple of weeks of very deep, persistent troughing in the eastern US, the Gulf of Mexico had been pillaged a couple of times by strong cold fronts. The propsects for getting any >65F dewpoints north of I40 looked tough, but things looked goo... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 30th -- Western OK
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Perryton, TX
Chase Area: Arnett to Reed, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Severe Watches 423 and 424
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1032, 1033, 1035, and 1036
Another marginal chase, with mediocre CAPE forecast and marginal shear courtesy of relatively weak (<35kts) 500mb flow. However, given the history of the upper-level pattern the past few weeks, and the prognosis of another big east-coast trough, there rea... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 16th -- Texas Panhandle
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: McLean to Clarendon, TX
Chase Area: Groom to Shamrock, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watch 492, Severe Watches 489, 491, 494, 495, 497, 498, 499, and 500
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1201-1206, 1208, 1210, 1211, 1212, 1214, and 1216
Another disappointing chase to fit in with the majority of 2006. As a high-amplitude, seasonally-strong trough moved into the plains, strong shear profiles were progged to be juxtaposed with moderate to strong instability. As has been the case for the va... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 21st -- SW KS / OK PH
Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Kismet to Moscow, KS
Chase Area: Ashland, KS, to Gates, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Severe Watches 529, 531, 533, and 535
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 1275, 1280, 1285, 1287, 1289, and 1290
We (Robin, Dan, and I) decided to give 2006 another try. Pfff. High-based convection developed owing to high dewpoint depressions. Flow aloft was relatively weak as well, so shear wasn't overly impressive, except for areas along and northwest of an outf... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
September 15th -- SW KS / NW OK
Total Distance: 520 miles
Target Area: Arnett to Canadian to Meade
Chase Area: Gate, OK, to Ashland, KS, to Coldwater
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Wow, apparently Ma' Nature switched May with September. A very nice, deep trough in the western US was the instigator for the first chase day in September 2006. The next day was supposed to be "THE day", so this day was more of the "day-before-the-day" t... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
September 16th -- SW KS / NW OK
Total Distance: 510 miles
Target Area: Arnett, OK, to Coldwater, KS
Chase Area: Coldwater, KS, to north of Pratt
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
I hadn't planned on chasing this day, since Kim and I were going to go to the state fair, and it looked like veered surface flow would negate any tornado threat in an otherwise highly-sheared environment. The main action looked to be farther north into NE... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
September 21st -- Southeastern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 420 miles
Target Area: Denton, TX, to Gainesville to Sherman
Chase Area: Ardmore, OK, to Antlers
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
I sat with Gabe, Dan, and a few other chaser-friends in Ardmore for several hours this afternoon, waiting for one of the TCu along the dryline to take hold. I became quite discouraged by 6pm, after having watched TCu after TCu lose the battle of initiation... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
October 26th -- South-central KS
Total Distance: 323 miles
Target Area: Blackwell to Ponca City, OK
Chase Area: Near Arkansas City, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watch 839
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 2157, 2158, 2159, and 2160
A nice, compact, powerful bowling-bowl type of upper low was forecast to approach the southern plains. Early model runs indicated that it was pass through Oklahoma during the overnight hours, minimizing any local severe threat and pushing the main threat ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
November 29th -- Northcentral Texas
Total Distance: 360 miles
Target Area: Denton to Gainesville to Paris, TX
Chase Area: South of Gainesville, TX (Bust)
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: Tornado Watch 869
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 2235, 2237, and 2241
Not much a log necessary... Very intense cold front was to come plowing through the Plains. Sufficient moisture had returned to the area (Tds >60) to support marginal to moderate CAPE (~1000-2000 j/kg) in the warm sector, while strong wind fields at all l... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
