Chase Log: September 16th, 2006
Click on any of the SPC products below (Convective Outlooks, Watches, or MCDs) to see the SPC's "Severe Thunderstorm Events" page pertaining to this event.
Total Distance: 510 miles
Target Area: Arnett, OK, to Coldwater, KS
Chase Area: Coldwater, KS, to north of Pratt
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
I hadn't planned on chasing this day, since Kim and I were going to go to the state fair, and it looked like veered surface flow would negate any tornado threat in an otherwise highly-sheared environment. The main action looked to be farther north into NE, SD, MN, and IA. By Saturday morning, however, it was apparent that surface flow wasn't going to be terribly veered, and it looked like a setup that I couldn't miss. Dan, Gabe, Robin, Kim, and I charged up the northwest passage. The overall environment was looking quite good for tornadic supercells.
We made it to Woodward when we noted initiation farther north. I had been hoping for initiation a little farther south, where LCLs were lower owing to less dewpoint deficits. Without much evidence of TCu erupting into Cb, we blasted northward to avoid a bust. While the updrafts looked vigorous initially, it was obvious that they weren't able to hold long; the pulse nature of the updrafts was clear. By the time we passed Coldwater, we were in good view of a couple fast-moving, LP supercells to our north and northeast. The updrafts were very narrow, and it just looked like they were struggling greatly to maintain. We sat in Pratt for a while, looking at data, before trying to give a severe-warned storm to our north one more chance. Fifteen minutes later, however, we gave up as that cell weakened considerably, and we call it a day.
Overall, it was a disappointing chase. I'm still trying like crazy to get Kim on a very successful chase, but I have had nothing but bad luck. Ugh.
09-16-2006 Chase Pictures
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