2007 Chase Logs
The 2007 chase year was pretty good, though not the most spectucular in terms of my personal chasing success. There weren't as many "good days" as I had in 2004, but that's not to say that there were not a few very good, "Top 10" chase days in 2007 -- namely, March 28th, April 23rd, and June 13th.
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February 23rd -- E. TX Panhandle / W OK
Total Distance: 430 miles
Target Area: Childress, TX
Chase Area: Near Memphis / Wellington, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 27, 28, and 29
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 177-181, 183, 185, 186, and 188
A powerhouse upper-level low/trough was forecast to dig/amplify and move out of the Rockies during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours of Feb. 23rd. The two largest unknowns were moisture availability and timing of initiation. It wasn't surp... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
February 28th -- Northern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 250 miles
Target Area: Stillwater and east (OK)
Chase Area: Stillwater to east of Pawnee
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 36, 38, and 41,
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 218-222 and 224
Another early-season chase setup presented itself as another very strong cyclone was forecast to develop and deepen as a 150+kt 250mb jet streak moved out of the western U.S. Moisture looked to be less of an issue as the previous event, as we had more tha... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 28th -- Texas Panhandle
Total Distance: 600 miles
Target Area: Shamrock, TX, to Perryton
Chase Area: Turkey, TX, to Wheeler
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: , Tornado Watches 81, 83, 84
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 368, 360-369
An atypical pattern was setting up for a couple of days, with a strong and large cut-off forecast to anchor over the Rockies, putting much of the central US in favorable southwesterly and southerly flow aloft. With more than a week of strong moisture retur... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 29th -- Central Oklahoma
Total Distance: 85 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Edmond to Mulhall
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches: ,
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 370, 370, and 374
I wasn't planning on doing any chasing this day, owing to widespread moderate convection that was acting to inhibit destabilization across much of central OK and northern TX. With the successful chase the day prior, and the possibility of another chase th... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
March 30th -- Northcentral TX
Total Distance: 320 miles
Target Area: Breckenridge, TX
Chase Area: Near Decatur, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches: Tornado Watches 92-96
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 376-378, 380-388, and 390
The cut-off that set up over the central and southern Rockies was forecast to begin to move out this day. Ample moisture remained in place (62-68F Tds south of I40), though widespread convection was forecast to limit destabilization. Despite this, very st... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 13th -- Northern Texas
Total Distance: 415 miles
Target Area: Decatur, TX
Chase Area: Decatur, TX, to Weatherford and Ft. Worth
Maximum SPC Risk category: High
Watches: PDS Tornado Watches 135 and 136, Tornado Watches 133 and 138, Severe Watch 134
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs): 479-485
A strong upper-level low was progged to move out of New Mexico, spreading strong southwesterly flow aloft over much of the southern plains. Cyclogenesis began the previous day, with mid-60 dewpoints streaming into central Texas by Friday morning. A surfa... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 21st -- Texas Panhandle
Total Distance: 660 miles
Target Area: Turkey, TX, to Silverton to Plainview
Chase Area: Around Amarillo, Groom
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
A potential significant tornado event was forecast, as a compact, but intense, upper-level low moved out of the southwestern USA. The Gulf saw a strong cold frontal passage earlier in the week, which scoured most of the significant low-level moisture well... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
April 23rd -- TX PH / NW OK / SW KS
Total Distance: 620 miles
Target Area: Pampa, TX, to Memphis, TX
Chase Area: Buffalo, OK, to Protection, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
A potential "day before the day" event, as southwest flow aloft led to lee troughing. With moderate moisture in place, moderate instability was forecast to develop across the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado by afte... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 04th -- NW OK / SW KS
Total Distance: 550 miles
Target Area: Near Kinsley, KS
Chase Area: Around Woodward, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Potential for a good tornadic supercell day as moderate southwesterly flow aloft above a moistening boundary layer was forecast to yield an environment favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A dryline bulge had been forecast across southwestern KS by the ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 21st -- Texas Panhandle
Total Distance: 530 miles
Target Area: Around McLean, TX
Chase Area: Around Pampa, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Total Distance: 410 miles
Target Area: Dodge City, KS
Chase Area: Near WaKeeney, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Me and others in my group (i.e. Howie Bluestein, Andy Pazmany, Robin Tanamachi, Mike French, Jana Houser, and Matt M.) left OUN around 1130am. We made it to DDC by late afternoon and dropped into the DDC NWSFO for a few minutes. With prospects of dryline i... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 23rd -- NW OK / NE TX PH
Total Distance: 530 miles
Target Area: Near Canadian, TX
Chase Area: May, OK, to Libscomb, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Our group called it quits about an hour ago. We deployed thrice this afternoon and evening -- north of May, OK; in Shattuck, OK; and east of Lipscomb, TX. As I should have guessed today, experience tells me that storms hate Oklahoma. Sure enough, the bette... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 29th -- N TX Panhandle
Total Distance: 0 miles
Target Area: Near Guymon, OK
Chase Area: Stratford to Gruver, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
A marginal chase day, with weak flow aloft and relatively marginal surface moisture. Robin Tanamachi, Dan Dawson, Chad Baldi, and I collected about an hour's worth of data in Gruver, TX, with the mobile phased array on a short line segment that traversed ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
May 31st -- OK Panhandle
Total Distance: 0 miles
Target Area: Elkhart, KS, to Boise City, OK
Chase Area: Elkhart, KS, to Guymon, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
With stronger northwesterly flow aloft and deeper moisture in the low-levels, there was better hope for tornadic supercells across far eastern CO, western KS, the OK panhandle, and TX panhandle this day. By the time we made it to Guymon, OK, a couple of ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 01st -- Western north TX
Total Distance: 0 miles
Target Area: Near Childress, TX
Chase Area: Near Vernon to Throckmorton, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Another in a slew of marginal chase days. Not much to say, other than that we didn't get to the supercells SW of Vernon quickly enough before it gusted out and before more convection developed to its southwest. We continued to move south in attempts to g... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 06th -- Central Nebraska
Total Distance: 1063 miles
Target Area: Kearney, NE
Chase Area: NE of Broken Bow, NE
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
An extremely strong upper-level trough was forecast to move across the northern US, inducing bomb cyclogenesis across the northern Plains. The 975mb low was strong for any time of year in this part of the country and nearly unprecedented for June. Very s... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 07th -- Central Oklahoma
Total Distance: 100 miles
Target Area: OKC to TUL
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Well, we were supposed to have the radar back by noon this day, but we were lucky enough to be given another day with the radar. With deep Gulf moisture in place (70-74F tds) east of a dryline that stretched from near Kansas City, KS, to Wichita Falls, TX... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 13th -- Northwestern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 280 miles
Target Area: Cheyenne to Weatherford, OK
Chase Area: N of Fairview to Watonga
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Well, let's give chasing in Oklahoma another try... A cut-off upper-level low was forecast to move little this day, anchored over the panhandles and far southwestern KS. Flow at all levels was unimpressive in terms of speed, but strong direction shear wa... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 14th -- Southern Oklahoma
Total Distance: 200 miles
Target Area: Near Lawton, OK
Chase Area: Near Cyril, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Marginal, marginal, marginal. Flow at all levels was leak, but there was some decent directional shear north of an outflow boundary that stalled near the Red River. Though most parameters were weaker this day compared to the previous, including CAPE and ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
June 19th -- OK PH / SW KS
Total Distance: 520 miles
Target Area: Liberal, KS
Chase Area: Near Woodward, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Extreme instability developed this afternoon south of I70 across western Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. With temperatures in the 88-93F range and dewpoints in the 75-77F range, MLCAPE >6000 j/kg and a weak cap would support very intense storms... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
September 30th -- NE OK / SE KS
Total Distance: 455 miles
Target Area: Nowata, OK, to Parsons, KS
Chase Area: Thereabouts
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Not much to say. Strong low-level shear was present east of a cold front moving eastward through the Plains. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear yielded an environment that may have been supportive of supercells. In the end, strong linea... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
October 14th -- SW Oklahoma
Total Distance: 340 miles
Target Area: Near Altus, OK
Chase Area: S of Hobart to SW of Anadarko
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
A disappointing day for me, given that I wasn't expecting such a relatively solid line of convection to be the mode that far south. I waited with my 'usual' chase group down in Snyder, before we shifted northward to ~2mi west of Roosevelt, where we parked ... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
October 17th -- Central Oklahoma
Total Distance: 200 miles
Target Area: Chickasha to Norman, OK
Chase Area: Oklahoma City to Cushing, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Similar story to most folks who chased in Oklahoma... I left OUN with Mike French, Jana Houser, and Howie B. upon seeing initiation down near Chickasha. We got in good view of that storm as we passed through Moore (driving nearly alongside Roger E and comp... CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
