Chase Log: June 03rd, 2008
Click on any of the SPC products below (Convective Outlooks, Watches, or MCDs) to see the SPC's "Severe Thunderstorm Events" page pertaining to this event.
Total Distance: 270 miles
Target Area: Near Wichita, KS
Chase Area: Near Medicine Lodge, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight
Watches:
Mesoscale Discussions (MCDs):
Not much to report... Left w/ the W-band radar truck towards S KS, making the decision to head W towards the GUY supercell as opposed to northeastward towards EMP. We got to P28 in time to notice the HP supercell to our SW begin to gust/bow out, so we called it off and headed to GBD for the night.
The 4km NSSL WRF absolutely nailed the convection that tracked along the OK/KS border from the OK panhandle... It got the main structure of the supercell correct (23-00z), and it got the subsequent evolution into an outflow-dominant bow structure correct (1-3Z). In addition, it also forecast the redevelopment of an E-W line of strong convection to the west of the primary bow near 3-4 Z. I think the EMC 4km WRF had a similar forecast, but the new run was alread posted by the time I started looking at forecast verification. I made a short and small (<2 MB) "movie" of the VNX vs. 4km NSSL WRF forecast (22-04 UTC, IIRC) HERE
Now, if only the high-resolution, convection-resolving models could be this good all the time...
