Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Seymour, TX
Chase Area: Altus, OK, to Throckmorton, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Yet another potentially significant severe weather outbreak forecast for the southwestern OK and northcentral TX area. Moisture return and convective debris from morning convection were the main concerns going into the day. These concerns, in addition to almost no cap/CIN forecast by the ETA by early afternoon, led me to enter the day rather hesitant. The SPC and NWS seemed optimistic about the situation, however, and thus we could not pass up a high-shear day.

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Northcentral IA
Chase Area: Story City to Estherville to Lake Mills, IA
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A day of good hopes but few results. I headed southward into central Iowa, hoping to hope onto any supercell that would develop west of I35. A few storms developed along I35 between Des Moines through Story City, but they appeared disorganized. Since I couldn't catch up with a nice supercell west of DSM, I opted to head back northwest into an environment that hadn't been tapped yet. A few storms developed along the IA/MN border, and I hopped on one that crossed the border south of Blue Earth. This storm didn't really do much, and I meandered eastward along the border before hopping on a potential supercell near Lake Mills. Overall, nothing looked too impressive. Interestingly enough, there were numerous tornadoes in western MN under a mid-level low and near an occluded surface low.

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Spirit Lake, IA
Chase Area: Lake Crystal to Owatonna, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

I Spent a couple of days looking forward to this one. For the first time in a little while, there was an area of strong instability juxtaposed with very strong shear. Unlike the past several events, it seemed as though winds at all levels were to be quite strong for this time of year, and CAPE was to nicely overlap some of the stronger low-level shear. An approaching cold front, prefrontal trough, mid-level shortwave trough, and outflow boundaries were expected to provide enough sources for lift to initiate thunderstorms across southern MN and IA by mid-afternoon.

Total Distance: 480 miles
Target Area: Marshall, MN
Chase Area: Benson to Alexandria to Sauk Centre, MN
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A good chance for catching some tornadic storms today as good shear and high instability juxtposed in western Minnesota. An approaching cold front was to enter western Minnesota by mid-late afternoon and spark off scattered convection in moist warm sector. The cap today was expected play little role in inhibition. Wrong.

Total Distance: 200 miles
Target Area: El Reno to Guthrie, OK
Chase Area: Near or in Oklahoma City, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Potential so-so day as weaker flow aloft was expected to keep tornado potential to a little more limited level than what was seen in days past. Because my parents were in town, in addition to the less impressive situation than in previous days, I did not want to stray too far from OUN. By mid-afternoon, a tornado watch was posted and we (myself, Kim, Paul, and Jen) left OUN. At the time, there were cells soon-to-be tornado-warned just north of OKC and other cells down in southwestern Oklahoma. Dewpoints were much less that far west, so we decided to start heading in the general direction of the storms firing north of OKC.

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Shamrock to Childress, TX, to Elk City, OK
Chase Area: Memphis, TX, to Altus, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Nice potential for tornadic supercells as rapid moisture transport started overnight and continued through the morning (LAW dewpoint rose about 10 degrees in 2 hours). We watched a Cb EXPLODE near Memphis, TX, with an incredibly crisp look and nice pileus clouds atop the rapidly-growing Cb. We got behind it a bit as we watched it too long, so we headed east out of Memphis. On the way out of the town, we did stop to look at some tennis-ball sized hail that was on the side of the road.

Total Distance: 560 miles
Target Area: Tulsa to Bartlesville, OK
Chase Area: Bartlesville to Vinita, OK, to Neosho, MO
Maximum SPC Risk category: High

Major tornado outbreak expected as very moist warm sector (tds >70) undercut very strong flow at all levels. The threat for tornadic supercells covered a large portion of OK, KS, and MO, but the northeastern part of OK looked excellent to me. Kim and I sat in Tulsa until a storm initiated in Osage count, at which time we darted northward to meet up with it.

Total Distance: 550 miles
Target Area: Blackwell, OK
Chase Area: Caldwell to Arkansas City, KS, to Herd to Wann, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: High

Another major tornado outbreak expected as very moist warm sector (tds >70) undercuts very strong flow at all levels. The model biases continued as each model run pushed the dryline farther and farther west. The high instability - high shear pattern continued as southwest flow remained over the region. While the early outlooks put northeast KS, Nw MO, and extreme SE NE in the greatest risk, I wasn't buying the model solution that the warm front would make it that far north. On this, we decided to change target areas from Coffeyville, KS, to south of Wichita, KS. We got to Blackwell, OK, by early afternoon and decided to set up shop here as we were expecting (per MCDs) a tornado watch to be posted soon.

Total Distance: 500 miles
Target Area: Gage to Erick, OK
Chase Area: Arnett to Sayre to Weatherford, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A rather potent day was forecasted. A very strong upper low was progged to move across and just north of the area by evening. A dryline was slowly pushing eastward from its 18z position in the central panhandles. Paul Marinski and I headed out about 1:30 (he had work till then), aiming for Gage, OK.

Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Chickasha, OK
Chase Area: Okemah to Slick to Broken Arrow to Oologah, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Quite a day in store... The first Day1 outlook brought up the possibility of an upgrade to high risk. Overnight convection dropped a nice outflow boundary from north of Ada to southeast of Tulsa. A strong upper tough was begining to lift out of the southwestern states. A dryline was located from a Low developing east of Amarillo southeastward. The dryline rapidly mixed east through the day, as it was located near I-35 by early afternoon.