Total Distance: 760 miles
Target Area: Concordia, KS, to Beatrice, NE
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Big Bustola. An on-the-fence decision was needed by mid-morning, as the target area of northern KS / southeastern NE would require a drive. Morning surface obs showed dewpoints only in the 50s across the area. Despite this, the 12z NAM was still indicating low-70 dewpoints making it into eastern Nebraska, though my suspicion was that low-mid 60 Tds were more likely given that the 70s were well into central/southern Texas. Weak but sufficient mid-upper level flow would yield deep-layer shear of 35-45kts across eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas, along with NAM-forecast 0-3km SRH in the 300-500 range.

Total Distance: 520 miles
Target Area: Shamrock, TX
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

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Total Distance: 110 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Purcell to Wynnewood, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

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Total Distance: 805 miles
Target Area: Hill City, KS
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

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Total Distance: 700 miles
Target Area: Tulsa to Bartlesville, OK
Chase Area: Columbus to Cherokee, KS, to Jasper to Mount Vernon, MO
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Finally, it appeared that there would actually be some substantial low-level moisture in place across the TX/OK/KS region as characterized by mid-upper 60s dewpoints. However, opposite of the previous chases this year, mid-upper level flow was progged to be relatively weak across the area with best instability. Nonetheless, 2000-3500 j/kg sbCAPE and 30-40kt 0-6km deep-layer shear looked to be sufficient for a nice supercell threat across eastern OK and KS.

Total Distance: 515 miles
Target Area: Durant, OK, to Dallas to Paris, TX
Chase Area: Same as Target Area
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A pretty typical early-season severe weather event was forecast for the southeastern OK, northeastern TX, southwestern AR, and western LA area, as a deep cyclone moved (and slowly weakened) from southwestern KS to northeastern OK. Meanwhile, the chase area would be in the left-exit region of a model-forecast 110+kt upper-level jet. Overall, shear looked very impressive, with 0-3km SR-helicity forecast to be in the 350-550 m2/s2 range and 50-70kt 0-6km deep-layer shear. As is typical for the time of year, however, surface moisture was going to be a problem, with many chasers hoping to see low 60 Tds up to the Red River by early afternoon. Nonetheless, the SPC had highlighted the risk with a moderate risk starting with the Day 2 outlook.

Total Distance: 440 miles
Target Area: Gainesville to Denton, TX
Chase Area: Sanger to Ladonia, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Yet another chase with possible 'just in the nick of time' type of moisture. Low-level shear was forecast to be very strong in the warm sector, east of a dryline across western north Texas. With 200-300 0-1km SRH in place, we felt that the upper 50 dewpoints and resultant 1500 j/kg sbCAPE may have been enough to produce some nice tornadic supercell. Except for a couple of slightly tornadic supercells in the southern Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, the storms really weren't able to utilize the very strong low-level shear because of the poor instability in place.

Total Distance: 450 miles
Target Area: Waurika to Ardmore
Chase Area: Dibble to Norman to Wellston
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

One of the most difficult chase forecasts I've been faced with so far in my chasing career. Another day of modified Gulf air courtesy of a scoured Gulf. Models had been showing another cuf-off passing through the area from the west. A dryline was progged to stretch southward from a surface low in southwestern KS or northwestern oK by afternoon, with low 60 Tds east of I35 in OK, and mid-60s Tds just south of the Red River. With strong flow aloft, 45-55kts of deep-layer shear along with 1000-2000 j/kg CAPE would support a pretty good chance of supercells. With backed surface flow ahead of the dryline, low-level shear would otherwise be pretty good if it weren't for the fact that we'd have deeply meridional flow on the east side of the low at all levels.

Total Distance: 450 miles
Target Area: East of an Ardmore, OK, to Gainesville, TX line
Chase Area: Madill, OK, to Durant, OK, to Paris, TX, to Greenv
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Another day with modified continental air advecting into the southern plains ahead of a strong upper-level cut-off low and deep (though filling) surface cyclone. I was hoping to get mid-60 dewpoints into southeastern OK and northeastern Texas, where shear profiles and instability (2000-2500 j/kg SBCAPE) were forecast to be sufficient for tornadic supercells. The previous low, however, wiped the Gulf clean, which was the reason the area was only able to advect modified continental air. At any rate, my preliminary target was an area east of the line from Ardmore to Gainesville. We left around 11:30am, after reviewing the latest RUC guidance (which, added to our optimism for tornado potential in our target area).

Total Distance: 240 miles
Target Area: Wellington to Anthony, KS, to Cherokee to Ponca City, OK
Chase Area: BUST
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Yet another day with pretty poor prospects, though there was a pretty good chance of supercells along the KS/OK border area if there was convective initiation. With a monster ridge in the west continuing, weak northwest flow aloft atop easterlies at the surface north of a stationary front would still yield sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. With low-90 temps and dewpoints either side of 70, strong instability would favor rapid severe development, given initiation. Finally, a small jet-streak at 700mb was nosing into northern OK from the west-southwest, resulting in enhanced 0-3km SRH in the 200-350 m2/s2 range, certainly favorable for supercells, given initiation. Note the big condition -- initiation must occur.

Total Distance: 450 miles
Target Area: Woodward, OK
Chase Area: Seiling, OK, to Wheeler, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

I hadn't really planned on chasing this day, as the next few days looked to be significant chase days. As such, I did not pay much attention to the situation until very early afternoon. By that time, it was evident that there was a supercell risk across much of the western Plains, from northwestern KS to southwestern TX. Well, I had blown any target out of Oklahoma given my late decision to head out. By mid-afternoon media helicopters were on a tornado-warned supercell that formed along an outflow boundary in west-central / northwestern OK. Off I go.

Total Distance: 300 miles
Target Area: McLean, TX
Chase Area: Elk City to Watonga, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

As noted in the 6/9/05 log, I had planned on chasing this day since early week. As it happened, a morning MCS swiped through much of the target area, laying down cold, cloudy outflow air that killed any hopes of developing any significant instability across most of the target area. I was chasing with Dan Dawson this day, and we recognized that this was happening, thankfully, before driving all the way to the target area. Instead, we sat in Clinton for several hours, waiting to see what would happen. A few storms did develop in western OK during the mid-late afternoon, though most dissipated rather quickly. We did chase a storm to Watonga, and it did show intermittent supercell structures. Overall, however, we got hosed by a morning MCS that came through too early to ingest any significant instability, and too late to allow the target area to clear by afternoon.

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Total Distance: 700 miles
Target Area: Childress, TX
Chase Area: Dickens to Hamlin, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Phil and I met up with the large group of folks at the Kettle restaurant (or whatever it was) there in Childress by mid-afternoon. The majority of them headed south towards a storm ne of Lubbock, while Phil and I hung around CDS a bit longer to see if storms west of Childress would intensify. Given the better shear progged to the north, we didn't want to go too far south. This was a very bad decision.

Total Distance: 200 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Elmore City to Wilson, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

An impromptu chase... Everything was rather marginal, but given the slight potential for supercells in relatively close proximity to Norman, we figured it'd be worth a shot. In the end, and despite a tornado warning or two, not much was seen.

Total Distance: 570 miles
Target Area: Pratt, KS
Chase Area: Northwest to east of Pratt, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

I wasn't really expecting to chase this day, but a look at "morning of" data and model output gave me a little confidence that there would at least be a good chance of supercells across parts of western Kansas northward into Nebraska. A modest mid-upper level wave coming out of the western US would spread some enhanced westerlies acorss western Kansas and areas northward. With dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, temperatures in the upper-80s, and a good veering wind profile, Gabe and I decided it was worth the drive to head into Kansas.

Total Distance: 220 miles
Target Area: None
Chase Area: Southern Garfield county
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

This was an on-the-whim chase. An OFB set up across north-central Oklahoma, which, in combination with very strong instability, I thought provided at least a chance for a brief spin-up tornado (high near-surface vorticity + strong low-level instability = chance for non-supercell tornado). A supercell south of Enid did have a pretty nice low-level couplet/mesocyclone for about 15-20 minutes, but the storm quickly became outflow dominant as cold outflow undercut the updraft.

Total Distance: 420 miles
Target Area: Quanah, TX
Chase Area: Crowell, TX, to Frederick, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

A good Fall outbreak -- could it be?! Finally, strong mid and upper-level flow was progged to cover portions of western Texas and Oklahoma as a cold front became stationary from west-central Texas northeastward near I-44 in Oklahoma. Clear skies developed behind the front by mid-morning, and models were forecasting significant instability along and immediately behind the stationary front by late afternoon. In addition, several outflow boundaries were located throughout the area courtesy of overnight and morning convection. This looked to be a classic case of strong instability on the cool-side of a good baroclinic boundary. Easterly flow behind the front created very strong shear by afternoon as well. In fact, RUC mesoanalysis showed 250-500 m2/s2 0-3km SRH and 50-90kts effective deep-layer shear! While the environment looked primed for tornadoes, storm mode became the downfall of this event.

Total Distance: 580 miles
Target Area: Gage to Woodward, OK
Chase Area: Gage to Alva, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Another good Fall supercell event -- could it be?! We nailed the target, but lost the battle due to horrendously muddy roads in the back-country north of Woodward. Driver beware -- stay on paved roads in this part of the state!The target area was largely confined to an area immediately along a warm front that was forecast to setup along the OK/KS border. Favorable deep-layer shear, sufficient CAPE, and the proximity of the boundary all meant one thing -- chase time!