Total Distance: 400 miles
Target Area: Erik, OK
Chase Area: Elk City - Foss - Butler, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

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Quite a roller coaster of "go - no go" for me... Starting late last week, I began to look forward to Monday as my first chase of the season. By the time the weekend came and went, however, the forecasts were looking considerably worse for low-topped tornadic supercell potential, and I went to bed Sunday night assuming that I wouldn't chase Monday. Well, when I awoke Monday morning, a check of sfc obs revealed that Tds were higher than previously anticipated, and the morning model runs suggested that CAPE would be a little greater than previously forecast. After some discussion with my usual chase partners shortly after 1 pm, and seeing the second band of convection moving across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, I didn't think I'd be able to make it in time to my "preferred" target of Stinnet - Canadian, TX. As such, I pretty much left the NWC around 2 pm with the mindset that I wasn't going to chase. However, as I neared I40, I made a last-second change-of-mind, and began trekking westward towards the TX panhandle border.

Total Distance: 420 miles
Target Area: Bartlesville, OK
Chase Area: Around Sedan, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Total Distance: 85 miles
Target Area: Impromptu
Chase Area: Near Perry, OK
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

I wasn't planning on chasing, but a decent-looking supercell developed south of Enid around sunset, so I decided to drive up I35 to take a look. The supercell had pretty good structure while I was en route, though it began to weaken (per radar and my own visual obs) as I pulled off of I35 just south of Hwy 51. I watched the cell move near Perry and then northeastward from there, taking some opportunities to get some lightning pictures. A new severe storm developed W of Kingfisher, so I opted to head W then S to get in line with the approaching storm. By the time I reached Crescent, however, the storm was rapidly weakening, so I decided to head home for the night.

Total Distance: 840 miles
Target Area: McPherson to Salina, KS
Chase Area: Near Marysville, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

The cap was expected to be a significant problem as a result of mediocre low-level moisture and little if any forcing aloft. With the upper-level trough hanging back well to the west, we were hoping that the dryline circulation and a narrow corridor of depleted CINH ahead of the dryline would allow for at least one or two storms to initiate between northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas.

Total Distance: 295 miles
Target Area: Enid to Alva, OK
Chase Area: Arkansas City to Burden, KS
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Similar to the previous day, there was significant uncertainty regarding initiation before sunset, by which time it was expected that linear convection would rapidly develop E of I35 along a dryline or rapidly-approaching cold front. A couple of high-resolution WRF runs, however, suggested that an isolated storm or two was possible from north-central OK into southeastern Kansas. Though I wasn't really planning on chasing, the possibility of initiation not too far to my N led me to head northward on I35 (with Gabe Garfield, Chris Schwarz, and Mike Buban). We watched a few persistent clusters of Cu/TCu from N of Enid to a boundary collision near ICT (northeast of which training convection was leading to a quasi-linear mess).

Total Distance: 810 miles
Target Area: Silverton - Turkey, TX
Chase Area: Floydada to Dickens, TX
Maximum SPC Risk category: Slight

Gabe Garfield, his brother Joe, and I chased between Floydada and Dickens on Wednesday. We made it to the storm that was beginning to transition into a supercell SW of Floydada, with respectable structure (including scud beneath the base). Shortly after arriving the nascent supercell slowed down and turned right, convection to the southeast, perhaps riding north-northeastward on some cooler outflow, interacted with "our" supercell. Unfortunately, after this convection crossed the latitude of our storm, the supercell steadily withered away to nothingness.

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Total Distance: 620 miles
Target Area: Turkey - Wellington, TX
Chase Area:  W of McLean; S of Childress
Maximum SPC Risk category: Moderate

Two supercells produced more than a half-dozen tornadoes from NW of Clarendon, TX, to N of Alanreed, TX, straddling I40.  We watched the first supercell produce several tornadoes (from at least two mesocyclones) at our location near Jericho, TX, about a mile or two S of I40.  As this was going on, I noticed another tornado from a second supercell to our distant southwest; we were watching two tornadoes from two different supercells on the ground at the same time.

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